You have to think about contradictions that occur, not like static things, when analyzing conflicts like this. The US military is strong, but they aren’t like completely cold blooded thugs. Some are, you’ll have that anywhere, but how revolutions are often won is the military breaks in half, and one side goes over to the revolutionary forces. See the people with the most like conscience (sorry its not very scientific here, but its the best word to describe), will defect first and early, which creates problems in the ranks with disunity and lowering morale. The generals and leaders will become extremely harsh on the military which just causes more defections as people start to escape their declining conditions, along with their conscience, which makes the leaders crack down harder – it creates a feedback loop that can fracture the entire military. Its happened many times. Turning a military against their own people is dangerous. It takes decades of otherizing and conditioning of the population to overwrite peoples basic humanity. Some people can be monstrous but some can’t resist their own conscience.
You never know what could happen, especially in the core. And as other people have said, the US military actually losing is always possible. Talk to anyone in the military with logistical or admin or leadership jobs, and a lot of times you won’t find the hyper jingoistic patriotism of the suburbs, you’ll find healthy skepticism and tactical flexibility. In other words, the military are always aware that they could lose, so why should we think any different?
It all comes down to organization, tactics, and strategy.
The US also has a huge, cellular, distributed, militarized police force. Under Trump, that’s the real immediate threat. They’ve had decades of dehumanizing their fellow citizens and are eager to employ military tactics and authoritarian rule to a population they see as sheep. Many of them are part of unregulated militias as well.
A US civil war or revolution would almost certainly look like guerilla leftists and military deserters vs military hardliners and the police. On the upshot, a lot of police are actually soft babies and probably wouldn’t stick it out for protracted fighting.
Militias could dig in and hold a lot of territory under martial law in some areas though. Appalachia just a hive of little forts and compounds.
You have to think about contradictions that occur, not like static things, when analyzing conflicts like this. The US military is strong, but they aren’t like completely cold blooded thugs. Some are, you’ll have that anywhere, but how revolutions are often won is the military breaks in half, and one side goes over to the revolutionary forces. See the people with the most like conscience (sorry its not very scientific here, but its the best word to describe), will defect first and early, which creates problems in the ranks with disunity and lowering morale. The generals and leaders will become extremely harsh on the military which just causes more defections as people start to escape their declining conditions, along with their conscience, which makes the leaders crack down harder – it creates a feedback loop that can fracture the entire military. Its happened many times. Turning a military against their own people is dangerous. It takes decades of otherizing and conditioning of the population to overwrite peoples basic humanity. Some people can be monstrous but some can’t resist their own conscience.
You never know what could happen, especially in the core. And as other people have said, the US military actually losing is always possible. Talk to anyone in the military with logistical or admin or leadership jobs, and a lot of times you won’t find the hyper jingoistic patriotism of the suburbs, you’ll find healthy skepticism and tactical flexibility. In other words, the military are always aware that they could lose, so why should we think any different?
It all comes down to organization, tactics, and strategy.
The US also has a huge, cellular, distributed, militarized police force. Under Trump, that’s the real immediate threat. They’ve had decades of dehumanizing their fellow citizens and are eager to employ military tactics and authoritarian rule to a population they see as sheep. Many of them are part of unregulated militias as well.
A US civil war or revolution would almost certainly look like guerilla leftists and military deserters vs military hardliners and the police. On the upshot, a lot of police are actually soft babies and probably wouldn’t stick it out for protracted fighting.
Militias could dig in and hold a lot of territory under martial law in some areas though. Appalachia just a hive of little forts and compounds.