Really difficult to say, but the wheels really do seem to be coming off the wagon. The Ukraine war has been a disaster, China is prying the claws of imperialism off of the global south, Africa is unburdening itself of France as we speak… could be sooner than we think?
That Lenin quote,
There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.
applies here. It’s hard to gauge exactly when it will happen. But when it does, it will be rapid.
It depends a lot on the timing of certain things external to the US. For example, Ukraine and Palestine; China’s movements; the upcoming Indian election; future EU elections which could either move more reactionary or (optimistically) people start to grow tired of taking Ls for the US; climate change; anti-colonial momentum in the Sahel alliance of Africa; etc.
To be honest, the safest overall course of action may be for a gradual decline instead of a rapid one. If the US fell within one generation, people won’t accept the new reduced standard of living and are likely to still hold American supremacist / white supremacist ideas. That would increase the odds of a world war. Whereas, if the US just gradually gets shittier over a generation or two, then maybe people will understand it as an internal systemic breakdown instead of an external attack.
Whereas, if the US just gradually gets shittier over a generation or two, then maybe people will understand it as an internal systemic breakdown instead of an external attack.
You are being overly optimistic here
Probably so.
despite that though we are in uncharted territory as far as having a militant, global empire collapsing with a massive world-ending nuclear arsanel
so i hope to share your optimism. we don’t need a fully overtly world-conquering fascist, mask off, wild thrashing U.S. just decide to take the world with it after years of heavy tactical use of nuclear weapons to assert itself
socialism, communism, none of that would matter (except maybe
) we would just barbarism and the painful death of humanity
I had some thoughts on this but then I realized I’m not clear on what you mean by “fell within one generation.” You mean the US stays more or less the same as it is now in internal political landscape, but with the addition of losing global power? Or you mean the US as a state collapses?
I mean whatever is meant by collapse of the US. I would presume that includes economic decline, geopolitical weakening, reduction or disappearance of military presence in other countries.
If, according to Lenin, this collapse could happen in a relatively short time, then how would Americans react? That’s what I was pondering. Just some half baked ideas.
I think it will take time for Americans to accept a reduced prestige and standard of living. If it happened overnight, I’m speculating that Americans would not tolerate it and be more likely to lash out violently, compared to a protracted, almost imperceptible decline. But I can totally see how the opposite could be true, that if people can see the slide happening, that it would be more upsetting than if it happened all at once.
Gotcha. I guess part of where I was hedging on in my thoughts, is if its military presence in other countries evaporated because of fast decline in power, it wouldn’t necessarily be able to do a whole lot of lashing out, except for maybe internally. I do think the internally part is very plausible though, considering the amount of splintering and scapegoating there is.
…of certain things external to the US. For example, Ukraine and Palestine; China’s movements; the upcoming Indian election; future EU elections
None of these things are external to the US.
I kinda think it has the potential to be the long drawn-out death knell of humanity. That’s my most pessimistic take on it, but it’s not an unrealistic take for me. I could see western imperialism sooner ending the world than ceding its power.
But it also often feels like we’re sitting on a powder keg, and the contradictions are growing so severe that the average person is starting to realize there’s no clear paths to a happy and safe life under current economic systems. If we get hit with a bad enough financial crisis, or even some sort of natural disaster the governments of the world are incapable of handling, we might hope to see a resurgence in socialist thought in the west.
I think a lot of it has to do with how well China fares in the coming years. Their existence really does hurt the idea that the ‘american way’ is in any way a requirement for a fulfilling life, as most average westerners believe I assume.
I think the next financial crisis is going to trigger total dedollarization. The US has already set themselves up with their trade war bullshit and sanctions regimes, but as soon as getting dollars becomes difficult the rest of the world is going to dump them immediately.
The US has definitely set itself up for that. For all the shortterm things it got that it wanted out of the Ukraine proxy war, i think that’s a major self inflicted consequence that they’ve followed up on with trade war bullshit like you said. Yeah the next 08 level crisis could very well lead to that
Anywhere between 5-30 years. Ukraine is losing the war, more countries are falling into the Russia-China/Brics camp, especially in the global south, and America is slowly decaying as a country. And once America is decayed enough it’ll be lost as the main rock of western imperialism, and the west will lose most of its bite.
I think American power has already decayed to the point where western imperialism cannot be sustained anymore. The only reason the imperial system continues anyway is sheer inertia. In all of the crises that we see today, the imperial system is rapidly undone while America and Europe are unable to respond adequately. The base has already shifted, now it is time for the superstructure to correct itself.
I disagree a little with the 5 years part as I can see a small chance of “a collapse” happening within that time, but as for the 30 years part it seems possible too.
As they have to steal ever more from their own populations and can steal less from the Global South they will become weaker and fractured, and if, for example, this happens in some parts before others it can lead to fascism in some countries in Europe which might see their neighbors in better shape as enemies, potentially leading to western infighting and an acceleration of their own collapse.
Hopefully such a scenario the conflicts stay internal instead of going global and they only weaken themselves while the rest of the world prosper. And in such a scenario we could even see Global Sout countries with enough power to massively influence western countries perhaps even leading to imperialism against them as the Global South is unlikely to go communist so fast.
Other scenarios might be more plausible though…
2-10 years. No way does it have 30 years left.
I think it will be no longer than 10 years at this point.
Unless the U.S. finds another way to give itself a shot in the arm and hobble along for another 25 years (which is possible, I guess) - this country is cooked. It is already so much different than even 2 years ago, just in terms of general consciousness, that if this trend continues, it will fall within our lifetime. Like others have said the contradictions are becoming ever stronger, other countries are increasingly powerful and most notably China and the global south are rapidly growing.
The U.S. will not be able to win a war without deploying nuclear weapons and obliterating the entire world along with itself. I wouldn’t put it past them to try if/when it comes to that, but the period of domination where they could fend for themselves is gone. Recruitment rates are in the shitter and again, the general population is extremely unhappy with the way things are going. Class consciousness still has a way to go, but we’re getting there. It’s not like it takes a whole country to complete the initial stages of a revolution, and more and more people are getting radicalized by the minute.
Ultimately, it’s going to take a serious world event that weakens and splits the bourgeois of this country (which is already kind of happening) and the swift action of the masses to take advantage of that when the time comes. It absolutely has to be soon, not only do I believe that it will be, but it has to be, or climate change and the US lashing out will genuinely cause hell.
In our lifetime ain’t just a saying, people. Get out there
The vestiges of the imperialist system will probably continue for decades to come but it seems plausible that with mounting crises and contradictions, we’re looking at a meaningful collapse of hegemony within the next 15-20 years. I think it can be very easy to understate what’s been going on for the last couple years if you’re a liberal “It’s just a war in Ukraine, a trade war against China, and a fragmenting Israel versus half a dozen heavily armed militant groups - nothing that threatens the United States!” but one can also overstate what’s going on without an understanding of how deeply rooted most countries are in terms of debt and monetary flows to and from the United States, and just how many military bases there are, etc. These aren’t intractable problems but the easiest problems are being solved first (dedollarizing between two countries that are already being sanctioned) and the harder problems, like actually creating the alternative institutions that most of the world’s countries would be happy with ceding a portion of their sovereignty to, are indeed very hard.
It’s very encouraging that US military might already seems so undermined and ineffectual, though, as being militarily challenged is a really big first step towards the end of empires. The usual people will keep spending billions on American weapons, obviously, but the mere concept that there are indeed problems that America cannot simply bomb or overthrow out of existence (e.g. Ansarallah blocking the Red Sea) is a massive shift from the high-point of the 1990s, especially as America has no other tools in its toolbox except for sanctions, which are becoming less effective by the day. And the fact that America has to send Israel billions in weaponry every few months is encouraging in the sense that such massive volumes are clearly required for Israel to merely stay afloat, as they don’t seem to be, say, going to war against Hezbollah with them or anything. The monetary values are meaningless, the US would have no qualms with printing a quadrillion dollars for Israel if that was what was needed, it’s the resources being taken out that are the real prize here. You can’t bomb people with dollar bills, nor could Israels eat them under siege.
It’s not going to collapse. It’s more likely that we’ll have a full-scale inter-imperialist conflict before anything resembling a collapse would occur, and I still don’t think it’ll be a collapse, for any participants.
You would need revolution, requiring revolutionary conditions. Like the ruling capitalist class of the United States turning to a situation where capitalism just can’t function anymore. We know, based on the 20th Century, that these conditions haven’t really occurred in “the West”, except temorarily and only causing at best what amounted to general strike, increased union activity, or spontaneous riot/uprising. Maybe we can give credit to the failed revolutions of Germany (Sparticist) and France (Paris Commune).
Aside from that, they turn their inability to rule into an irrationalist or even illiberal form of government. They strip away the facade and turn to fascism. That’s how they save themselves from crisis, that paired with the ability to extract resources a la carte from the countries oppressed by the imperialist/neo-colonial relationship. If they don’t bend to the will, we can crush their economies or incite political crisis. On top of that, the US is the most highly advanced and most stable liberal democracy in the history of democracy as we know it. They’re doing just fine and a general crisis of capitalism can be managed to benefit exactly who needs to benefit and hurt exactly who they need to hurt.
If anything does happen, however, that creates revolutionary conditions, we have to remember that there is no economic determinism, no inevitable crisis/crash/collapse, no guarantee of choosing socialism over barbarism. China isn’t going to save us. The deep global recession won’t save us. Accelerationism isn’t going to work.
It’s simple. If you want revolution, you need to make it happen. There is no other solution, no easy way around it, no shortcuts.
Imperialism within the cores will not collapse so easily, yes. And I agree with your general sentiments as well, in regards to the necessity for revolution within the cores and the dangers of complacency. But imperialism as a global system is absolutely going to collapse, and is visibly doing so- economically, militarily, technologically, socially, etc. all the pillars that have imposed imperialism upon much of the world are falling.
The west is trying- and increasingly, failing- to maintain its empire abroad now. And even within the imperial cores, they’re certainly not “doing just fine,” and calling the US the “most stable” is also a joke. And while the western elites will surely turn their domestic crises towards their own advantage, the fact is that the walls are closing in, and the foundations of even the imperial cores are genuinely eroding- demographically, ideologically, economically, etc- and the west is, in a very real sense, cutting itself off, bit by bit, from the rest of the world (good riddance in that regard to the west, even though I live in it).
The west is not self-sufficient, and- frankly, it is not competitive, not at anything much anymore other than slander (and even that is in rapid decline) and genocide- and even then, as can be seen with the current Ukraine conflict, but also with the resistance against the Zionist occupiers, in Yemen, in Iran, in Syria and Lebanon and Iraq, and in Palestine itself- they can’t win, and ultimately they can’t and won’t even break even. The empire is bleeding itself dry, and yet it is being outproduced- and in more cost efficient ways. Just Russia alone is outproducing and outgunning all of NATO; when and if China is added to the mix, the west will truly have no hope whatsoever.
The anti-imperialist bloc today is more advanced, more stable (in regards to the core 2 nations leading the charge- China and Russia), more capable and determined in every sense, than the west. The west has essentially, barring some nigh-impossible changes (basically China/Russia going belly-up and submitting despite holding all the chips) already lost; now all that is left is to see how much destruction and suffering they will get away with inflicting on the world before they are done, in that sense (the answer of course though being- a lot, with the very real possibility of even the complete annihilation of our species in the process). For much of the world outside the cores- though the process will take decades- the era of western savagery and infestation is over; the light at the end of the tunnel is in a very real and tangible sense to be seen, even if there is definitely much suffering and danger ahead getting there. And for the imperial cores- needless to say, the empire will either increasingly starve and cannibalize itself, or fall to revolution as the hunger sets in, or- as it certainly seems to be doing now- attempt to go out with a bang, to try to re-establish the empire by holding the world hostage in a final orgy of violence and bloodshed.
Why is the West just casually letting Russia and China outproduce them? Why are they this incompetent? When the Cold War started, you would never expect such weak behavior from the West.
I’d argue there are two reasons- the first is, that this is a product of all the contradictions of capitalism, which, particularly after Reaganomics and then the triumphalist “end of history” as the Soviet Union fell, reached a point wherein the beast began truly devouring itself- and all the foundations which it had built itself upon- at a pace greater than it could plunder back or reproduce in turn, and with ideological justifications and systemic corruption (ie. neoliberalism and the environment that enforces it- finance capitalism, the rentier-monopolist classes, etc) that have made recovery difficult if not nigh impossible without revolutionary change.
The second reason is that, simply put, barring genocide of the majority of the masses of the non-western world, this was the natural path of things- the global south, the colonized, far outnumber the west, and with the decadence, and also arrogance of the imperial cores, this decline was nigh inevitable as the rest of the world caught up and outpaced the west, and as deterrence and through it the ray of hope for independent powers and blocs emerged. The contradictions of capitalism and the empire prevented the actions needed for its final victory (if it were even possible); frankly if you ask me, the only way this victory could have been assured would have been if a thoroughly inhumane (and utterly monstrous, in a way that not even the worst genocidaires in history such as Hitler were) western leader, taking the logic of empire, would have undertaken Churchill’s proposed “Operation Unthinkable” before the Soviets had developed their own nukes- and they would have not only nuked the Soviets, but used nukes, biological and chemical weapons, etc, etc. upon the entire rest of humanity to destroy even the seeds of hope and resistance- and even then it would likely not be enough, as the contradictions of capital and the empire are such that the bulk of their labor and extracted resources are from the periphery, and even of those truly and purely from the imperial cores, such a horror would inspire resistance, whether out of moral principles, the awareness that those within the core would increasingly be next, or the pragmatism of not wanting to rule over ashes.
China alone is already more populous than the entire west combined. Without a constant (and by necessity- explicitly genocidal) suppression, this development- where China would retake the place it has held for the vast majority of human history- was inevitable; even just the Chinese people alone can produce more than the west, innovate more than the west, and frankly for that matter they have a superior (indigenous) civilization (well, frankly I’d argue that every non-western civilization is inherently far superior in this aspect, so it’s not just China) which is not founded upon the imperialist divide-and-conquer contradictions that exist even within the imperial cores- the settler-states most obviously, but also even England proper, France, Germany, the Netherlands, etc… the empire, and capitalism, is founded on a kind of chaos and conflict- the eternal suppression and beating down of the lower classes, the eternal search for the “other” to vilify and scapegoat for the flaws in the system, and the eternal race to the bottom, with whatever underhanded or destructive means necessary to gain a quick buck. Without the global south to plunder, and to vent its frustrations and contradictions upon, the west would have collapsed long ago, in the same sense that Nazi Germany (as an embodiment of the true nature of the west), in a triumphal world where they had eradicated all the “untermensch” and established a “pure ‘Aryan’ society” across the globe- would have eaten itself alive. If you ask me, the western system is such that not even a “virgin earth” all to themselves, could be enough to satiate even a capitalist nation as small as the Netherlands (nevermind the fact that being cut off of the bulk of the world’s labor which it depends upon would be disastrous for it).
Competent imperialist could- and did- try to sustain the empire, further still. They co-opted and cannibalized new contenders- like Japan and Germany- successfully carved apart and mangled all the true (non-western) civilizations of the world- the Russian/Soviet, Chinese, Islamic, South Asian, West African, etc. civilizations. But the nature of the contradictions inevitably led to their arrogance, and seeking to extract more, more, and more from the global south and the working class, to the point where they exported even the foundations their empires were built upon (industrial production) to the colonized with the expectations the colonized, the “lesser slaves” could never build up against them- and better than they ever had- in turn; and to the point those nations that could have been co-opted, post-Soviet Russia in specific, but also countless other nations- the gulf Arabs, the south Asian states, nations across Latin America, Africa, Asia- was spurned rather than added into the fold without any consideration as to the basic dignity and volition it, and all of humanity, had to not simply go quietly into the dark, to not accept being carved apart, piece by piece, and eternally plundered.
@[email protected] has lain the second reason pretty well, but if you want more there’s TriContinental / Vijay Prashad:
I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy:
I have to be honest. The only thing that will happen is either 1.) The US goes full mask-off fascism; or 2.) militant union organizing and popularization of left-wing, even explicitly Communist, ideas. Yes it’s true that imperialism is broken, it’s also true that the US is running out of force abroad. It’s still an economic power house with a functioning (albiet backsliding) liberal democracy. No one really likes the government, but you can tell at least 30-40% of the population is on board 100% with pushing desired candidates and they believe the US has a chance in electoralism.
If you want to know the truth, we are essentially going to have to repeat the work of SDS, the Black Panthers, and all the other post-Civil Rights activisist left-wing movements. Now, instead of the Russian Empire going down as an imperialist force in favor of the Communists, we will have to organize to make that happen in the US or the UK.
As much as we clown on the Democrats and their supporters, it’s true that if the Democrats fail we will not have a liberal democracy. Fascism is weak and fragile, but it gets the job done for whoever needs that job done. Bullets are cheap. Prison labor is already raking in plenty of cash and the US doesn’t care about overcapacity in the cells or abuse of solitary confinement. Biden himself is already sliding away from the liberal democratic facade that at least Obama was able to keep up. Trump did real damage and pushed us away from keeping up our image, but, yes, there were real conditions behind it (namely between 1980 and 2009).
A collapse is still a pipe dream, either way. Even when the feudal order was weakened and unable to sustain itself, we still had many bloody conflicts and revolutions to push through. The monarchs didn’t care, they fled or escaped along with the aristocrats and landowners and landlords. Even some decades after the French Revolution, people were lamenting the death of the old order. To this day we have anti-revolution propaganda from monarchs.
In all honesty, we can exploit external conditions but we still have to realize those conditions alone are not revolutionary or even necessarily progressive. What the US is doing right now is exactly what we expect in a weakened state that used to be so powerful. But this exact policy is also going to force China and Russia to be more agggressive, more competitive, and even form alliances and tighten up on separating their sphere of influence from that of “the West” or the US. This is very bad. This will push China to align more with the right-wing of the CPC. We don’t want that. Thankfully we have Xi Jingping as prevention, but I don’t trust whoever is going to succeed. It’s too shakey, too unpredictable.
I still follow in my belief that we need fresh revolution. If Americans or the British can’t do it, there’s going to be some serious issues. It will be the equivalent of the German Revolution failing. The US wants China and Russia to get into the politcs of bloc-formation, while the US is also pushing to allow Western Europe to go fascist. Then we have Nigeria playing too neutral. The US has Argentina, Peru, Ecuador in their pockets as well. The Sahel is too weak at the moment.
I won’t entertain an idea of collapse for these reasons alone. It’s too dangerous to spread that idea. We have decades to keep pushing.
As much as we clown on the Democrats and their supporters, it’s true that if the Democrats fail we will not have a liberal democracy.
Sorry (not sorry) to tell ya, but you already don’t have a liberal “democracy.” Red fascist or blue fascist, take your pick, or reject the system of fascism altogether. It’s not a “democracy,” and while the past two senile old white POTUSes have been bad for American PR, Obama himself was just as bad when you actually look at his actions on the ground, in domestic and foreign policy alike. And frankly, I’d argue Biden and the neocon gang are far more fascistic than Trump ever was, if not in token minority “rights” (temporary privileges, considering how easily they are disposed of or voided by the regime despite being called rights- and I say this as someone who is a racial minority, trans, etc) then absolutely in foreign and economic policy, and in the erosion of “liberal” “rights and freedoms” (but they paint it in a notably different way from Trump, talking about “fighting fascism/racism/anti-semitism/far right or left extremism/misinformation/protecting ‘democracy’/etc”).
If you want to know the truth, we are essentially going to have to repeat the work of SDS, the Black Panthers, and all the other post-Civil Rights activisist left-wing movements. Now, instead of the Russian Empire going down as an imperialist force in favor of the Communists, we will have to organize to make that happen in the US or the UK.
And sure, those movements will have to be repeated. But my point is also that this time around, it is not just the Russian empire that is in rapid decline- it is the entire imperialist bloc, and they are more precariously positioned than ever before (their foundations sundered, held afloat by exporting their inflation worldwide and trying to extort the world with the chips they have remaining), and the world is reaching such a point, where it can be said that it is developing beyond the imperialist bloc as-is.
this exact policy is also going to force China and Russia to be more agggressive, more competitive, and even form alliances and tighten up on separating their sphere of influence from that of “the West” or the US. This is very bad. This will push China to align more with the right-wing of the CPC. We don’t want that. Thankfully we have Xi Jingping as prevention, but I don’t trust whoever is going to succeed. It’s too shakey, too unpredictable.
And as I see it- why shouldn’t I want much of what you describe? Not just for China and Russia, but the entire global south. You describe it as “right-wing,” but words have meanings- what is “right-wing” about anti-imperialist alliance and development? Is this just some inherent fear and condemnation of “militarism” (even when it is for the clear purpose of defending against a blatant aggressor)? Military buildups and alliances do not equate to “right wing politics”- and frankly, economic development and even competition between states is also not the sole purview of right-wing politics. These things are a fact of life- and I fully embrace and cheer on their rapid development on these fronts, because the more the non-imperialist nations develop in this regard, the more we approach multipolarity and the end of hegemony to the western imperialist system.
Or did you think that China- or even for that matter, Russia- is going to imitate the west’s failed system? That’s clearly not what is underway. It’s a loser’s system, a system in its latest stages as the west is in now frankly even destroys more than it ever creates- a system which has hollowed out the once impressive (if wholly ill-gotten) imperial cores’ infrastructure, industries, their very spirit. Socialism can be competitive; leftism can be competitive; and it is through the dictatorship of the proletariat that China has developed in such leaps and bounds while safeguarding the revolution, and in particular the characteristics of the revolution which guided China away from the many pitfalls that befell other nations- the Soviets and India as key examples of what China’s condition would otherwise be.
What is Russia doing now, for instance? Do you think it is liberal economics which is allowing Russia to outproduce the entire west in Ukraine, or that the Russians are the “goose-stepping orcs” that the west paints them out to be, and that is unifying their war effort and morale? Why do you think Chinese and BRICS financing and cooperation is increasingly being chosen across the global south- because it is more extractive, more exploitative?
And- in regards to the “too shakey, too unpredictable” bit- while this is not complacency (as the rest of the world isn’t going to save us in the imperial cores, and we can’t count on that nor are we owed that, frankly rather the opposite if you think about it), at least in the sense that you may or may not have been calling into question the anti-imperialist bloc’s development and overall direction- I wholeheartedly disagree. The rest of the world is moving in the right direction (multipolarity, win-win cooperation, actual “rules-based” order, etc), and it’s a question of whether the imperialist bloc will succeed in their attempts to destroy this progress.
I still follow in my belief that we need fresh revolution. If Americans or the British can’t do it, there’s going to be some serious issues. It will be the equivalent of the German Revolution failing.
We (as in those of us in the imperial cores) need fresh revolution, yes. The rest of the world will determine their own path as they see fit, and if you ask me, by and large, for all that it is littered with flaws along the way, they’re headed in more than the right direction. The world doesn’t need the west to “reform themselves and save the day” otherwise though, they just need the west to get lost, to get out of the way of the rest of humanity (granted, I may have interpreted your tone and/or meaning somewhat wrong here, 50/50 on that). But I do agree otherwise- if the Americans or Europeans can’t do it (or the Brits, but truth is also the Brits are increasingly irrelevant- a wonderful statement, that) we’re going to see a world war and attempts by the imperialist bloc, at repeating and perhaps even eclipsing the fascist atrocities of the past century.
It just sounds like a long way of saying that China and Russia should function as imperialist powers using some type of Keynesian economic policy or war economy boost. This is undeniably what the US is trying to do. They want to drive competition. Either China or Russia hardens their stance into an imperialist bloc, or the US destroys them. That’s the goal. The US will not collapse nor will the imperialist system lead by the US. Weaken, lost influence, lose relevance or merit - yes. Collapse is still a resounding no. It’s the reason China is so careful with the US, so willing to go the extra mile to satisfy, the reason China wants to cooperate in international politics as a neutral player. China has reiterated time and time again that they are against bloc formation. This is why: China doesn’t want to be seen as an imperialist power or even a competing superpower. They want cooperation with all, whether that be Russia, the US, the Eurozone, or major countries in Africa and Latin America.
If the US keeps pushing power politics, China will be forced to push back, just as Russia was pushed to do in 2022. No one seriously wants that. It will be devastating. That’s not progress, that’s reaction. The DPRK has even admitted peaceful reunification isn’t possible in relation to the South (RoK). Of course it’s the truth, but peace is always what we demand first. That can’t happen in a world dominated by capitalism, and capitalism has to be taken down consciously with great effort. Peace holds off struggle for another day, it buys time. But we can’t fool ourselves. That peace is as much of a facade as American liberal democracy. It’s stable and looks good, maybe feels good, but it’s fake, another way of obstructing reality.
Though peace can’t be shaken out of regular conflict to get rid of capitalism. It has to be liberation, the wars have to be revolutionary wars. Otherwise we’re back to step one, always on the edge of a new imperialist competitor, the ultimate aspiration for all capitalist countries at sufficient level of development. At the moment, only Palestine and the DPRK are really capable of fighting those types of wars. Even if the US adopts an America First policy (we all know this is just coded fascism), we know they’ll still perform covert operations illegally and against their supposed policy.
It’s socialism or barbarism.
This is undeniably what the US is trying to do. They want to drive competition.
Also, figured I’d go back to this sentence- no offense, but- AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA… no.
Does banning TikTok, Huawei, accusing China of “overcapacity,” etc. sound like “driving competition?” You’re falling for the capitalist drivel, whether you realize it or not- the US is trying to maintain its rentier dominance, over industries, over defence (or rather, terror against the entire world), over finance, over trade, etc…
Capitalists have always claimed they’re about “competition.” The truth is very much “do as I say, not as I do,” however. Was it “competition” that built up the British empire, or shameless plundering, mercantilism, and the outright destruction of native industries across the globe, for instance? And can we call the US’ own development- first heavily protectionist, then after indebting and destroying all its competitors, going full Marshall Plan on them, “competition?” Can we call the US foreign policy, the Monroe Doctrine, the abuses of the dollar (and the US’ jealous guarding of its exorbitant privilege) “competition?” Were the Plaza Accords “competition?” Are the various oligopolies that dominate the US seeking “competition?”
Just… no. Please, educate yourself. As another commenter in this chain has noted- Vijay Prashad is a good starting point (https://lemmygrad.ml/comment/4301042). Or Michael Hudson. Or Prof. Wolff. Or Geopolitical Economy Report. If you don’t understand these things you’re always just going to be misled.
That’s exactly what it is - competition. They don’t want to cooperate with China, they want to compete. I’m not talking about the domestic “free market,” I’m talking about the world economy and power politics. If the US keeps pursuing this path of foreign policy and no longer wants to play friendly, then, yes, either China or Russia (or some other country) will have to step up and be the competing imperialist power. Either that, or they have to choose the submissive role, a puppet government. There’s no way around this. We live in the era of imperialism and globalization - all countries have to be interconnected by some way and we can’t backtrack. Something like BRICS is an alternative, not a revolutionary new thing, but just a plain alternative to what already exists. That’s not inherently a good or bad thing. But when we have the US pushing countries into competiting spheres of influence, what happens in a system like this? The same that already happened before.
This isn’t a moral concept, this isn’t a voluntary thing. This is just what happens when you have a bunch of sufficiently developed capitalist countries. They will all demand imperialism at some point, that’s their aspiration, and those competing interests will interfere in the peace of all other (both capitalist and socialist) countries. People will be forced to pick sides at some point, that’s the competition.
They don’t want to cooperate with China, they want to compete.
My answer to that, is the same as before- laughter. It’s certainly not competition they want, otherwise they would have just left things be- they are rentiers, hegemonists, imperialists- and it is submission they desire. Or do you think that within capitalism and imperialism as the system we live in today, big corporates want to compete with- say, labor, or even with other corporations, rather than buy off the competition and grow fat and complacent while cutting margins? This is what it always is and was, this is the nature of capital, this is undeniably the approach the west has built for itself over centuries and maintains (albeit a crumbling system) to this day- there may be some competition within it, but it is only a means to the end, a means that capitalists, and imperialists as their highest form, ultimately have a consistent track record of (and it only makes sense from their perspective- it’s the nature of the system) seeking to eradicate in turn once they reach their desired end.
I’m talking about the world economy and power politics. If the US keeps pursuing this path of foreign policy and no longer wants to play friendly, then, yes, either China or Russia (or some other country) will have to step up and be the competing imperialist power.
Once again, you’re mixing the notion of “competition” - anti-imperialist competition ie. resistance at that- as imperialism. This is nonsense. Is the competition, the struggle of the Palestinians, “imperialist?” Bullshit.
either China or Russia (or some other country) will have to step up and be the competing imperialist power. Either that, or they have to choose the submissive role, a puppet government. There’s no way around this. We live in the era of imperialism and globalization - all countries have to be interconnected by some way and we can’t backtrack
I agree, we can’t backtrack. We are moving forward- what is being built now, is a stage of society beyond imperialism, and from there, gradually ideally beyond capital. Did you think that stage would be characterized by non-competitive, disunited, unfocused (anarchic) groups or states, fumbling in the dark and refusing to play power politics? Do you think that would be “progress,” or uplift the human condition? Did you think that with the ushering in of socialism, humanity would suddenly cease to be globalized? This sounds more like a dark age to me than anything else, and it certainly is not what any communist movement, but also any sensible leftist movement, would advocate- it is not what the former movements (SDS, Black Panthers, civil rights movement, etc) you positively described advocated also, for that matter.
The individual could not compete against tribalism (not that we evolved that way to begin with); tribalism could not compete against early complex societies, and those in turn could not compete over the long run against monarchism and/or more stratified societies, and then finally in turn against the imperialists. Feudalism and the rights of nobles gave way to capitalism and the rights of the capitalists- each class, larger than the next. And the next class in turn, the ideally universal class, which comprises all the masses of humanity- that is what was theorized by Marx to come next, what was determined to be the next logical conclusion, with the means to outcompete and truly liberate our species once and for all from the contradictions- the class struggle, the alienation, etc. that has plagued humanity for millennia.
Something like BRICS is an alternative, not a revolutionary new thing, but just a plain alternative to what already exists. That’s not inherently a good or bad thing. But when we have the US pushing countries into competiting spheres of influence, what happens in a system like this? The same that already happened before.
This hasn’t happened before, certainly not in the same way. But you won’t listen regardless, will you? What we are seeing is the development and cooperation of the non-western “bloc”- if it can be called that- the west vs. the rest, really- wherein the colonized have finally reached a parity within the greater global system (rather than individual states doing so, such as with Japan, or with- while they were not imperialist, which in itself literally disproves your point- the Soviets), and where they all, diverse and flawed as they may be, some (most) even capitalist in their own right, are coming together in the face of their common enemy now that they truly have the means to do so, against the global system of capitalist superprofits/extraction that is imperialism, the highest stage of capital.
And they are not “rebuilding imperialism, but with the south in charge” or whatever nonsense. That’s your western victim/purist mentality at play; a seat is at the table for the west when they want to start acting like human beings again, for the first time in 500 years if not more (ie. revolutionary change, getting rid of the colonial mentality, etc). A system of actual rules (rather than western diktat and double standards), increasingly more equitable trade, win-win cooperation, a diverse and open dialogue for peoples- all peoples, unlike how it has only ever been with the west- having their voices heard and determining their path forwards themselves, and- if you want to be a healthy cynic about it, with state entities keeping each other in check (the most prominent, developed, competitive, and powerful of which today is an AES) to prevent the prior order from returning with a different head at the helm.
I’m done with this discussion. Because I’ve said all there is to say, about it, and you’ve said yours (nebulously gesturing at “competition, power politics bad, there is no alternative to recreating the wheel,” etc). I’ve already linked other sources, but I don’t think you’ve even so much as properly absorbed what I’ve said already (in any of my comments so far), it just hasn’t been able to sink in yet. Anything else I could say would just be repetitions of what I’ve already said before, and more to convince anyone else looking in on this conversation than anything else- but I simply won’t. I recommend actually checking the sources linked by me- or by the other commenter in this thread in regards to Vijay Prashad and the Tri-Continental- if you actually have interest in seeing it all spelled out for you by people more practiced and articulate in doing so than I am, with a far greater understanding of the subject, and with sourcing and (in regards to their published works) peer review and renown.
As far as I’m concerned, your own take on the matter is little different from the neoliberal “end of history” mentality- that certainly seems to be what you’re trapped in- just with a colorful “leftist revolution” aesthetic and idealism behind it all. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the only groups you seemed to mention positively (presumably without looking at their actual approach and analysis to things) were now-defunct leftist organizations, the Palestinian resistance who haven’t even their rightful sovereignty and autonomy as a state within their own internationally recognized territories, and the “hermit kingdom” of North Korea (for all that that name is deeply unfair and a smear in and of itself- so let’s say, “pseudo-hermit socialism” or “socialism, but under siege and isolated from much of the world”).
Once again, for convenience:
The video linked by another commenter, with Vijay Prashad on hyper-imperialism
The articles- on hyper-imperialism and the “churning of the global order” (or rather, the anti-imperialist developments of the global south and world) by the Tri-Continental
China and Russia aren’t functioning as imperialist powers. In fact, rather the opposite. And the way to fight the imperialist bloc- the methods they are using- socially, economically, diplomatically- are ways contrary to the very notion of imperialism and hegemony.
You said earlier that the US was “trying to force China and Russia together”- and here you explicitly state that the west is “trying to influence them, to become imperialist powers”- and that couldn’t be further from the truth. That’s complete and utter bullshit. Nonsense, garbage, and you should educate yourself on that mentality and also consider just how ridiculous that sounds. The west has no such plans for either Russia or China- rather, their nations are only on the menu (the Russians tried, this is where it led them- back to the global south, to anti-imperialism, to realizing their place is with Eurasia and not the “continent” of Europe and its paleskinned, mayo racists), and the increasing ties between them are to the west’s horror and what will undo the western imperialist bloc- but also, the notion that these nations- China and Russia, but also the rest of the global south- are having their path charted by the west, which is molding them to become its twisted afterimage- frankly exposes a deep, hopefully subconscious (but extant all the same) western, Eurocentric chauvinism wherein the colored and non-western peoples can’t truly think for themselves, and everything meaningful has already been devised by Europeans and westerners (like yourself) who will determine the path that “has” to be taken- that the actions of the global south right now- those of China, in its development unseen throughout history and built without imperialism, of Russia, which is joining hands with the anti-imperialist struggle in Africa and the MENA while they themselves fight encroachment and attempts at genocide and the balkanization of their nation at home, of Iran (flawed that it is) and the various nations amongst the anti-imperialist bloc, etc… are insufficient, that their revolutions are insufficient, that you- a western leftist (if you can be called that- I’m increasingly doubting you should be called that) have the real answers to their liberation, and how to progress past capitalism and imperialism as its highest stage and a world system- and that it comes in some nebulous, “purer” notion of a revolution- which frankly sounds like some anarkiddie nonsense.
China’s development is a revolution. Russia’s assistance to the various African anti-colonial states (and their own choice in partnering with Russia, to build a world that goes beyond imperialism, beyond the exploitation that has been all the west ever offered, to develop and pursue win-win cooperation- let’s not forget that this is their choice, to work with Russia, with China, with BRICS, and the world at large is ecstatic), the development of BRICS (even with the greatly diverse and flawed members as it may be- Indian Hindutvas, Saudi and Emirati petro-monarchies, Iranian state Islamism, the mess that is Egypt, Brazil which struggles with its own settler-colonial issues, Russia which is no Soviet Union, etc), the forging of ties amongst such disparate groups, overcoming the divide-and-conquer and small trivialities (small in contrast) that the west has constantly sought to emphasize and enflame, in order to take on the greatest contradiction, the most abhorrent one- imperialism- all of this is a revolution.
And, in case I can’t emphasize it enough- I’m going to copy-and-paste state it word-for-word again- ‘the forging of ties amongst such disparate groups, overcoming the divide-and-conquer and small trivialities (small in contrast) that the west has constantly sought to emphasize and enflame, in order to take on the greatest contradiction, the most abhorrent one- imperialism.’ Do you want to know what the west really proposes, its grand vision for the world, what the cursed western powers inflicted throughout their direct colonial rules, what they consistently support to this day in every corner of the earth, what they even maintain in some considerable level within their own imperial cores? It’s that divide-and-conquer mentality, a colonized (or colonizer) mentality through and through.
Blocs are not inherently imperialist; the Warsaw pact was not imperialist, and- if the non-aligned movement, or whatever other grouping, had unified in resistance to the west, it would have been imperialist either. Pan-Africanism, pan-Arabism, pan-indigenism, the collaboration of the global south, etc. is not imperialist. And frankly? If it takes a bloc to fight the west- if the west drives Russia, China, and the rest of the global south towards forming a bloc of resistance, as they are now (through their intolerable actions- genocide, constant warmongering, imperial arrogance and hubris and NOT some “master scheme to taint the resistance with the imperialist ideologies so they can ‘replace’ the west”) then so be it; it is through collaboration, through tangible and meaningful solidarity- and this is what solidarity is, if blocs be needed so be it- that the resistance shall succeed.
The rest of the world is charting their own path, and in what is to come ahead- in the destruction of imperialism as a world system, and in the framework that the global south is building- frameworks of cooperation, mutual development and support, of sovereignty, of mutual respect and dialogue- that is where the path towards socialism lies, in an environment conducive for all nations to chart their course towards it in their own unique ways. And that China, the world’s emerging economic superpower and a socialist state (within a socialist phase of development, a transitionary period wherein the forces of capital are harnessed, with strict proletarian oversight and control, to develop) is among this new multipolar order’s greatest champions, can only spell good things for socialist development ahead.
Even if the US adopts an America First policy (we all know this is just coded fascism), we know they’ll still perform covert operations illegally and against their supposed policy.
And of course, the imperialist bloc will always be malicious actors. The imperialist ideologies predominant within their societies, their institutions, and proliferated across the entire globe amongst countless compradors, can always be expected to act as such. But the rest of the world is moving past this- they are developing, such that they will be able to better resist this- through the education and awareness of their peoples to the necessity of the anti-colonial struggle and solidarity against the common enemy; through the development of these countries, to wean themselves away from the methods of coercion and subversion the west has always used to undermine them; through the building of relationships- into blocs if need be- that together can better resist imperialist encroachment.
The rest of the world is moving past the west. Past the imperialist world system, and the west is grasping at straws trying to force the genie back in the bottle. And they’ll try, certainly they’ll try with every terroristic, genocidal, nefarious means to undermine this development- and they’ll send covert (and overt) operations illegally as they always have and is the nature of their system- and increasingly, those operations will fail. They’ll send their devils, their dogs of empire, as they are doing right now in Ukraine, right now in Gaza, along the shores of Yemen, in Chad, Ethiopia, the D.R. Congo- and those dogs will increasingly die, like the scum they are. Sometimes the west will score wins- like in Argentina, Ecuador, Pakistan (with the overthrow of Imran Khan), the Philippines, etc… but the tide is turning, and these wins will be ever more precarious- as can be seen with all the states mentioned above, or with the contingent post-soviet states of the EU, etc… and sometimes, they will appear more terrible than before- like with NATO’s expansion into the treacherous Nordics (which have never actually been “neutral”), and their attempts to court India, or- like with the Abraham accords- but as seen with the last example, these schemes will increasingly fall apart, through the contradictions of empire and its resulting hubris, through the decline in the material conditions underpinning empire, etc.
If anyone wants their prediction to be true, let us pick the most liberal of choices, say this can happen by 2050. Then, expect to be actively organizing regulary starting today (if not ten years earlier) and continuing until the 2050s. That’s about three or more whole decades, not including a success story where you’d have to also manage the governing body and/or manage civil war and/or manage post-revolution struggle.
Too long. Whatever the actual amount of time is.
Before 2050.
Thinking more about this and these articles come to mind about the US military and the general unsustainability of how things are being run in terms of infrastructure:
https://indi.ca/nothing-to-see-here-just-the-wheels-falling-off-empire/
https://indi.ca/how-americas-military-has-fallen-apart/
If we also consider how coupled the US is to the world economy, a drastic drop in global power could mean the sort of sanctions the US state has been inflicting on other countries end up on it and I don’t see people having enough loyalty to the country to fight such a thing meaningfully. Already, we know how the public feels and what gets implemented as policy has little connection. We are seeing right now people being willing to risk their futures or even lives now to protest genocide in another country, similar to the actions during the US violence against Vietnam. An encounter that the US ultimately lost, even if it did inflict barbaric harm on the Vietnamese people in the process.
Now China with BRICS is rising in influence, anti-imperialism appears to be overall strengthening and western imperialism weakening even if it is not always a straightforward “win” because even under the best conditions, it will not always go the way we want it to for the colonized.
And then there is climate change to contend with too, as well as the US’s general poor handling of covid, where it sacrificed its own people in order to push for faster re-opening and just sort of say “the pandemic is over.” That kind of cynically evil approach might work some of the time at a small scale, but the displacement climate change could cause is not going to be small and ignorable, and there will be no “just wait on a vaccine” moment for it.
All of this is to say that there is a lot levied against the US and western imperialism as a whole, both now and going forward, some of it plain old nature coming home with the consequences of mass ecological destruction.
And if the US loses its hold, I don’t see what other wing of western imperialism would be strong enough to take its place. I hesitate to make any personal predictions on time, but I don’t see western imperialism having any meaningful capability to navigate the consequences of climate change as a power figure, so I can’t see it lasting as a global power beyond that getting bad. If we take covid as a preview, it’s more likely for the violence to turn inward and deteriorate the conditions of the US further and China to be the one leading in acting pragmatically on a large scale.
If we also consider how coupled the US is to the world economy, a drastic drop in global power could mean the sort of sanctions the US state has been inflicting on other countries end up on it
Hell, nevermind sanctions, a drop in US power will mean- as we are seeing- the development of alternatives; the world simply won’t need the US anymore, all their tools of extortion will be undone, and increasingly states will choose the alternatives- or develop their own- rather than deal with the US, which has always, always been a malicious, treacherous actor.
Countries will increasingly develop their own domestic agriculture, where the US had formerly shackled them to its own, discouraged such developments, and supported (in some/many cases, enforced) the development of export economies, wholly beholden on the imperial cores instead. Alternatives to western media, technology, to western institutions ranging from education to international justice or arbitration- will develop. Countries will move past the western chokeholds from all industries, from pharmaceuticals, to industrial development (within their own countries at that!), to developing infrastructure for their own inter-global southern trade (for instance, inter-African trade as a key example of where this is so clearly necessary, and where such struggles are undergoing), to finance, and so on.
And personally, I look forward to seeing it. Whatever is beholden to the west, owned by the west, should not be trusted, and countries are not only seeing the west increasingly once again go mask-off as the bad actors they are, but now, with viable alternatives, moving, slowly but surely, en masse away from it. The future of the west will be pariahs if they keep it up, but even in the hypothetical scenario of genuine communist revolution and establishment within the west- the levers of control the west has only ever abused so far, will increasingly be gone, and the rest of the world is never going to hand them back- it’s all Joever for western hegemony, for western influence, for the western era (500 years of monstrosities, unprecedented terror and actual barbarism).
And if countries don’t like the developing Chinese, Russian, BRICS alternatives- by all means, that’s fine (well, I’d call it nonsense, but it’s fine). For instance, India banned TikTok. More power to them, or whatever. But what we’re moving towards is a world where India, and all these other countries, can make their own TikToks, their own Facebooks or whatever they want- a world where, hopefully, each and every chip of western capital will be lost. Frankly if you ask me? China should probably see about helping India break off from western tech, even if it’s building up their own new competitors, surely an arrangement can be made- but it’s a whole new world, and what is “west” is gonna be on the way out. Hopefully we live to see Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Ford, General Electric, Pfizer, Monsanto, Nestle, Amazon, Coca-Cola, Disney, etc… (basically list any and every western multinational) kick the bucket, to see the west really hit its stride in either becoming irrelevant, or learning to come down to earth and join the rest of humanity (without the levers of coercion- they’re never going back, and the west will never be trusted to develop them, ever) as equals- and as truly reformed, repentant, and thoroughly decolonized equals.
Well said!
Imo the most probable scenario is :
- Neocolonialism is rejected by a critical mass of countries
- The west can’t adapt, so they try to reindustrialize by reverting to industrial revolution conditions (which takes an openly neo fascist movement)
- It goes to war with itself or the outside, either inter European, or West vs new anti-colonial block, or US vs Europe
- After that it undergoes a pink wave like South America, not radical enough to break out of misery but still a bit progressive
Can’t speculate further than that
I don’t see it collapsing anytime within the next 20 years sadly. By 2100, maybe.
Centuries. Maybe by 2500 if we’re lucky, but I’m thinking it won’t end until we’ve at least entered the third millenium.
Why do you say so?
The west is scarily good at sucking the life force out of others.
The British diaspora and Western Europeans now depend on a huge influx of legal immigrants of color to support their parasitic lifestyle although they could still gather a reserves of undocumented immigrants as slaves. The open imports of immigrants of color indicates that British diaspora depleted its reserves of Indigenous child slaves and stolen inheritance in the Residential fake School death camps and that Pax Americana could not use the Bretton Woods Institution to steal the fruit of other people’s labor from the debt trapping, misinformation, blackmailing, and puppet governments. The need of elites in Western European diaspora to betray their own wasteful white people for new immigrants of color is a major indication that Pax Americana order is already failing.
